Prevalence of care dependence among older persons in 26 Latin American and the Caribbean countries

Produced by: 
Inter-American Development Bank
Available from: 
May 2022
Paper author(s): 
Natalia Aranco
Pablo Ibarrarán
Marco Stampini
Topic: 
Education - Health
Year: 
2022

Rapid population aging will drive a strong increase in the demand for long-term care services in Latin America and the Caribbean. To inform policy making, in this study we present novel estimates of the number of care dependent older persons in 26 countries of the region. For ten of these countries, estimates are based on existing survey data. For the remaining 16 countries, we use a statistical model to predict the prevalence of care dependence based on the relationship between this condition and age, sex and health status. We also forecast the number of care dependent older persons in the years 2035 and 2050. On average, we find that 14% of the over-65 population is care dependent in 2020, and this average prevalence is predicted to grow to 16% in 2050. Driven mostly by the increase in the size of the older population in the region, the number of care dependent older persons is expected to grow by a factor of three over the same period, from 8 million in 2020 to 23 million in 2050.

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Research section: 
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