On the Credibility of Inflation Targeting Regimes in Latin America

Produced by: 
Inter-American Development Bank
Available from: 
August 2014
Paper author(s): 
Rodrigo Mariscal
Andrew Powell
Pilar Tavella
Topic: 
Macroeconomics - Economic growth - Monetary Policy
Year: 
2014

Inflation targeting has been adopted in a set of emerging economies, including eight countries in Latin America. The success of this regime may depend critically on the credibility of the target and the expectation that the authorities will take appropriate actions if the target is breached. This paper exploits a database of inflation expectations and attempts to measure whether, for a set of inflation targeters in Latin America, expectations are well anchored. A tighter anchoring of expectations is interpreted as a gain in credibility. Also considered are the effects on the credibility of the regime if the inflation target is breached. The results indicate that while inflation expectations have not been fully anchored over the whole sample period, credibility has risen, but at the same time the cost of breaching the target has grown.

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