News of disinflation and firms' expectations: new causal evidence

Produced by: 
Banco Central del Uruguay
Available from: 
Agosto 2022
Paper author(s): 
Martin Caruso Bloeck
Miguel Mello
Jorge Ponce
Financial Economics

We causally identify how firms’ inflation and growth expectations respond to information about a comprehensive reform in the monetary policy framework by means of a randomized control trial. The reform is intended to lower inflation significantly in the coming years, making this experiment unique relative to previous ones that are carried out in stable and consolidated monetary policy frameworks. Firms treated with information about the reform lower their inflation and cost expectations by about 0.5 percentage points, with the effect being persistent sixth months after the treatment. Treated firms also expect temporarily lower GDP growth.


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