Rural Development Policies and Conditional Cash Transfers in Brazil: An Impact Evaluation of the IFAD-Supported Gavião Project and Potential Synergies with Bolsa Família
Public policies frequently are implemented simultaneously rather than in isolation. We seek to estimate the impacts—and possible synergies—of a rural development project (Pro-Gavião) and the Brazilian conditional cash transfer program (Bolsa Família). In partnership with the State Government of Bahia, Pro-Gavião was an IFAD supported rural development project in 13 contiguous municipalities between 1997 and 2005. Census tract level data were extracted for the analysis from the 1995-96 and 2006 Agricultural Censuses. The evaluation uses Propensity Score Matching to construct a control group of untreated census tracts, and a difference-in-differences estimation to identify impacts. The outcomes analyzed include land productivity, agricultural income and child labor. Although Pro-Gavião involved significant investments in the region, the results suggest little if any program impact, or synergies between the two programs. Alternative explanations for the null results are discussed.
