In the heart of Bogotá, two residents, Juan and Maria, lead markedly different lives. Juan operates within the informal economy and resides in a compact apartment in a low-income neighborhood. Meanwhile, Maria is employed in a formal office setting and resides in a spacious house in an upscale city area. Our recent study, titled “Unequal response to mobility restrictions: Evidence from COVID-19 lockdown in the city of Bogotá”, provides a comprehensive examination of these contrasting realities during the COVID lockdown. It underscores the fact that policies, when applied universally, can manifest divergent impacts contingent upon one's socio-economic standing. Even though Juan and Maria both call Bogotá their home, the stark differences in their living conditions paint a vivid picture of the city's broader socio-economic landscape.

Understanding Lockdown Compliance:

To gauge how individuals adhered to lockdown mandates, we turned to geolocated signals from mobile devices. By comparing these with pre-pandemic patterns, we deduced residence locations based on the predominant nighttime locations, achieving this with a high level of spatial precision. Post-lockdown mobile signals then provided a glimpse into altered daily mobility habits. When this data was cross-referenced with census statistics, a correlation between mobility patterns and socio-economic indicators emerged. The study’s key revelation was that the lockdown led to an average mobility reduction of 41% in Bogotá. However, hidden beneath this statistic were pronounced inequalities. For neighborhoods resembling Juan's, mobility only dipped to a rate 35% below the city's average. In stark contrast, movement in upscale areas, like where Maria resides, plummeted by 80% — a trend observed in other major cities, such as London. Figure 1 shows the differential compliance of different neighborhoods relative to the average compliance of 41%.

Figure 1- Distribution of Estimated Compliance

The resilient mobility witnessed in economically challenged zones underscores a bitter truth. Many residents, like Juan, are enmeshed in the informal economic web. Devoid of the privilege to telecommute or stockpile essentials, their livelihood necessitates outdoor activities. Conversely, in prosperous regions, substantial financial safety nets and proximity to basic amenities enabled greater adherence to movement restrictions.

Work Activity, Income, and Home Infrastructure Affect Compliance Capabilities:

Delving deeper with econometric tools, our research identified the most potent factors determining lockdown compliance. Among the pivotal findings, it was evident that a rise in average income was directly proportional to a decrease in post-lockdown movement. Additionally, the multidimensional poverty index (MPI) and employment informality were correlated with reduced adherence to lockdown guidelines, spotlighting the undue burdens placed upon lower-income families, a situation exacerbated in developing nations. Furthermore, while the nature of employment across different neighborhoods typically had a negligible effect on compliance, the construction sector emerged as an outlier, exhibiting increased mobility. From a demographic perspective, enhanced education was a notable predictor of compliance. Access to home-based internet also emerged as a vital factor, while overcrowding appeared as a significant deterrent.

Bogotá, a city of contrasts, boasts diverse living conditions. In some areas, up to 15% of households lack refrigerators, and 10% are without cooking stoves. Interestingly, these factors didn’t considerably influence compliance. Conversely, internet access at home, which varied widely from 36% to 85% across different areas, showcased a profound impact. Furthermore, the link between population density, overcrowding, and compliance was evident: overcrowding, a predictor for elevated COVID-19 transmission, outweighed sheer residential density in its influence, offering an alternative perspective to findings from countries like the U.S.

These conclusions are summarized in Figure 2, with the coefficient and confidence intervals of the estimates of the coefficients capturing how different factors affect neighborhood compliance relative to the average city-level compliance.

Figure 2- Coefficients capturing how different factors explain neighborhood level compliance.

Broader Implications and A Call to Action:

The ramifications of our study extend well beyond the scope of lockdowns. It accentuates the overarching dilemma of socio-economic disparities undermining the efficacy of public policies. Consider, for instance, global health campaigns promoting healthier diets. Their broad-brush recommendations often fall flat for families for whom organic or specialized foods remain out of financial reach. Similarly, urging the public to minimize car usage fails to consider those in regions where public transportation is scant.

The insights from the Bogotá study not only spotlight disparities in mobility but also in the opportunities and resources available to its diverse populace. For individuals like Juan, compliance risked his very sustenance, while for Maria, it simply implied working from home.

This research rings alarm bells for policymakers worldwide. It emphasizes the urgency of acknowledging socio-economic disparities, often tied to within-city spatial inequalities when crafting and implementing policies. There's an inherent need to ensure policies do not exacerbate existing inequalities. True progress lies in engaging deeply with communities, understanding their unique challenges, and crafting interventions that are both impactful and equitable.

In conclusion, as the global community steers through the aftermath of the pandemic, the exposed socio-economic rifts necessitate a holistic approach to policymaking. Metropolises, like Bogotá, need to heed the lessons of these tumultuous times, ensuring that future policies cater to the diverse needs of both their Juans and Marias.