Incidence of COVID-19 in the Bolivian Economy: How Much Can We Learn from a Pandemic Shock?

Available from: 
April 2021
Paper author(s): 
Fabrizio Leonardo Ardiles Decker
Topic: 
Macroeconomics - Economic growth - Monetary Policy
Year: 
2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has left many questions not only in the field of health, but also in other areas such as economics. Under that precept, I developed a DSGE model that considers the COVID-19 shock with the premise of understand (in quantitative terms) the type of economic recovery that the country could experiment. The results support that the economic growth of Bolivia for 2020 ranges between -5.4%, -5.9% and -6.1% corresponding to 3 different types of scenarios. These scenarios illustrate the behavior of the country's economic recovery and experience the form of the letters U, V and W respectively. If we consider an economic growth forecast under a scenario that does not consider COVID-19, the model registers a value close to 0% for 2020. In that regard, the incidence of COVID-19 in the country's economy will be approximately 5.8% for 2020.

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