The Growth-Finance Nexus in Brazil: Evidence from a New Dataset, 1890-2003

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December 2018
Paper author(s): 
Nauro Campos
Menelaos Karanasos
Panagiotis Koutroumpis
Financial Economics

This study revisits the growth-Önance nexus using a new econometric approach and unique data set. In particular by employing the smooth transition framework and annual time series data for Brazil from 1890 to 2003, we attempt to address on the one side, what is the relationship between Önancial development, trade openness, political instability and economic growth and, on the other, how it changes over time. The main Önding is that Önancial development has a mixed positive and negative time-varying impact on economic growth, which signiÖcantly depends on jointly estimated trade openness thresholds. Moreover our estimates highlight a positive impact of trade openness on growth but with interesting variation regarding their size and power, whereas the e§ect of political instability (both formal and informal) on growth is mainly negative. We also Önd that changes between regimes tend not to be smooth. Finally, our estimates show that in 57% of the years in which Önancial development has a below the mean e§ect, we Önd that trade openness experiences a substantial above the mean change.


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